La actividad económica en la República Democrática Popular Lao se ha visto lastrada por desafíos estructurales, inestabilidad macroeconómica y un entorno externo en deterioro.El crecimiento del PIB se estimó en un 2,7 % para 2022, respaldado por una recuperación gradual del turismo y otros servicios. Si bien el ferrocarril Laos-China y el nuevo puerto seco han facilitado los viajes y los flujos comerciales, con la actividad industrial respaldada por las exportaciones de recursos naturales, la recuperación se ha visto socavada por la inestabilidad macroeconómica y factores externos. La necesidad de pagar grandes deudas externas, junto con los altos precios de importación y la escasez de divisas, contribuyeron a una fuerte caída en el valor del kip. Esto provocó una alta inflación, lo que a su vez debilitó los ingresos, el consumo y la inversión. Para muchos hogares, el ingreso real está cayendo y el gasto en salud y educación está disminuyendo.
· Impulsado por los persistentes desequilibrios externos, el kip se depreció considerablemente en 2022y Cayo en un 32 y 43 por ciento frente al baht tailandés y al dólar estadounidense, respectivamente, en el año hasta abril de 2023.El tipo de cambio se ha estabilizado recientemente, respaldado por una política monetaria más estricta. Sin embargo, la limitada liquidez cambiaria y las bajas reservas han resultado en el racionamiento de divisas por parte de los bancos comerciales, impulsando el mercado cambiario paralelo.
· La depreciación del kip y el aumento de los precios mundiales han resultado en una alta inflación, que se situó en el 40 % en el año hasta abril de 2023. El aumento de los precios mundiales de las materias primas, en particular de los combustibles y los fertilizantes, ha provocado un aumento de los costos de las materias primas y los bienes producidos localmente. La inflación de los precios de los alimentos alcanzó el 52 % interanual, lo que afectó gravemente a los hogares pobres de las zonas urbanas.
· Los ingresos reales de los hogares se han visto afectados por una inflación galopante.Mientrasta proporción de hogares que informaron pérdidas de ingresos cayó de mayo a diciembre de 2022, casi dos tercios de los trabajadores vieron estancarse o disminuir sus ingresos en medio del aumento del costo de vida. A finales de 2022, el 64 % de las familias de Laos vivía con el mismo presupuesto o con un presupuesto inferior al del año anterior.
· La consolidación fiscal fue impulsada por un gasto más ajustado y unos ingresos internos marginalmente más altos. El déficit fiscal se redujo levemente y el resultado primario, excluyendo el pago de intereses, mostró un pequeño superávit. Sin embargo, los ingresos seguían siendo más bajos que antes de la pandemia y las necesidades brutas de financiación siguen siendo considerables, debido a las elevadas obligaciones del servicio de la deuda. La falta de espacio fiscal limita la capacidad del gobierno para apoyar a los hogares pobres o invertir en salud y educación.
· La deuda pública y con garantía pública ha alcanzado niveles críticos, lo que socava la estabilidad macroeconómica y las perspectivas de desarrollo.Laos enfrenta desafíos tanto de solvencia como de liquidez, con una deuda estimada en más del 110 por ciento del PIB en 2022. El sector energético representó alrededor del 37 por ciento del stock de deuda en 2021. China posee aproximadamente la mitad del stock de deuda pública externa y los reembolsos programados para 2023 –26. A medida que la relación entre los pagos del servicio de la deuda y los ingresos internos aumentó del 35 % al 61 % entre 2017 y 2022, el gasto público en educación y salud disminuyó del 4,2 % del PIB a un 2,6 % estimado en el mismo período.
· Los desequilibrios externos siguen siendo altos en medio de la demanda de divisas para las importaciones y el servicio de la deuda. En relación con el PIB, el saldo de la cuenta corriente empeoró levemente en 2022 debido a un menor superávit comercial y mayores pagos de ingresos netos. El crecimiento de las exportaciones fue compensado en parte por precios de importación más altos, particularmente para el combustible. Las entradas de capital se mantuvieron limitadas a medida que disminuía la inversión extranjera. Con solo un tercio de los ingresos por exportaciones ingresando al sector bancario nacional, los niveles de divisas son inadecuados.
· Se proyecta que la economía crezca un 3,9 por ciento en 2023 y se acelere a un promedio de 4,3 por ciento en el mediano plazo, impulsada por una recuperación continua en los servicios y las exportaciones.Se espera que la demanda externa ayude a sostener las exportaciones manufactureras y agrícolas, mientras que la industria se beneficiará de la inversión en el sector energético y las zonas económicas especiales. Sin embargo, se espera que el crecimiento se mantenga por debajo de los niveles anteriores a la COVID, lastrado por las debilidades estructurales. La inflación seguirá siendo elevada en 2023, en parte debido a los altos precios de las materias primas y la depreciación del kip. Si se abordan los desequilibrios estructurales, la economía podría recuperarse más rápidamente.
· Se espera que los ingresos nominales de los hogares mejoren gradualmente, aunque se vean socavados por los altos costos de vida.La inflación ha erosionado el poder adquisitivo, aumentado los costos de consumo y agotado los ahorros de los hogares y el gasto en capital humano, poniendo a muchos hogares en riesgo de caer en la pobreza. Suponiendo que Laos permanezca en este camino de recuperación vulnerable, el crecimiento del ingreso per cápita se mantendrá por debajo de los niveles previos a la pandemia y de sus pares regionales en el mediano plazo.
· Las perspectivas económicas están sujetas a importantes riesgos a la baja.Riesgos externos incluyen bajo crecimiento y demanda en las economías regionales. Por otro lado, la inflación en las economías avanzadas podría provocar mayores aumentos en las tasas de interés y renovar la presión sobre el kip. Los riesgos internos incluyen problemas para refinanciar la deuda externa, el lento progreso de las reformas estructurales y el deterioro de los balances bancarios. La escasez de mano de obra debido a la emigración en busca de mejores salarios también podría socavar las perspectivas de recuperación en la agricultura, la manufactura y los servicios.
Para restaurar la estabilidad macroeconómica, se necesitan reformas en cinco áreas políticas cruciales:
- aumentar los ingresos públicos para proteger el gasto en educación, salud y protección social;
- mejorar la asignación y eficiencia del gasto;
- acelerar las negociaciones de la deuda;
- fortalecer la estabilidad del sector financiero; y
- mejorar el entorno empresarial para promover la inversión y las exportaciones.
Además, mejorar la disponibilidad, la puntualidad y la calidad de los datos es clave para una formulación de políticas eficaz basada en pruebas.
Sección Temática: Impactos de la inestabilidad macroeconómica en los hogares de Laos
Los hogares de Laos están sufriendo los efectos de la continua inestabilidad macroeconómica.Los hogares de bajos ingresos tienden a ser más vulnerables a la inflación que los hogares acomodados debido a su limitada capacidad de afrontamiento y la falta de reservas financieras para hacer frente a los mayores costos de vida. Los hogares más pobres también tienen más probabilidades de verse afectados por una disminución del gasto social, ya que los beneficios de los servicios públicos de salud y educación representan una mayor proporción de sus ingresos.
La inflación ha afectado a casi el 90 por ciento de las familias de Laos, obligándolas a adoptar estrategias de supervivencia.Entre mayo y diciembre de 2022, el costo de la vida de las familias urbanas y de altos ingresos aumentó aproximadamente un 24,5 % y un 22,5 %, respectivamente, debido a los fuertes aumentos en los precios de los alimentos y el transporte. Si bien los hogares rurales y de bajos ingresos están menos expuestos a la inflación, el impacto aún se sintió ampliamente a medida que aumentaron los precios de los insumos agrícolas. Mientras tanto, los salarios mínimos y los salarios del sector público perdieron un 27 % y un 24 % de su valor real durante 2020–22. En respuesta a la inflación, más de las tres cuartas partes de los hogares afectados redujeron el consumo de alimentos o cambiaron a alimentos más baratos, de producción propia o silvestres. Esto podría conducir a una mala seguridad alimentaria y nutricional.
Los presupuestos gubernamentales y domésticos restringidos han llevado a una disminución en el gasto en capital humano, especialmente entre los hogares de bajos ingresos.La inflación y la depreciación de la moneda dieron como resultado costos más altos para la salud pública y la educación, mientras que la creciente carga de la deuda, el estancamiento de los ingresos públicos y los aumentos en otras categorías de gastos han desplazado el gasto social. Se espera que los efectos adversos se sientan con mayor intensidad en los hogares de bajos ingresos, ya que es más probable que los más ricos puedan acceder a los servicios privados de salud y educación. Entre las familias afectadas por la inflación, más de la mitad redujo sus gastos en educación y salud. Se informó que alrededor del 7 por ciento de los niños de hogares de bajos ingresos abandonaron la escuela en 2022, principalmente por razones financieras.
Políticas clave para aliviar los impactos adversos de la inestabilidad macroeconómica:
- Reasignar el gasto público en áreas prioritarias, incluidas la salud y la educación.
- Rediseñar la política fiscal para permitir un apoyo específico a los pobres y vulnerables. Pasar de los recortes y exenciones de impuestos a intervenciones fiscales más progresivas, como las transferencias de efectivo específicas, permitirá al gobierno proteger los medios de subsistencia de los hogares de los continuos impactos de precios a un menor costo fiscal.
FAQs
What is the economic problem in Laos 2023? ›
Inflation will remain elevated in 2023, partly due to high commodity prices and kip depreciation. If structural imbalances are addressed, the economy could recover faster. Household nominal incomes are expected to gradually improve, albeit undermined by high living costs.
Why is Laos economy struggling? ›But the country's real problem is its mounting debt crisis. In 2021, Laos' total public debt was 88 percent of GDP, and foreign debt was $10.4 billion. The World Bank predicted that debt would surpass 100 percent of GDP in 2022.
How much money does Laos have? ›$74.309 billion (PPP, 2023 est.)
What is the economic condition in Laos? ›The Lao economy faces increased challenges from a sharp currency depreciation and high inflation, amid a deteriorating global economic environment and slow domestic reforms. Following signs of economic recovery in early 2022, the domestic and external environment has deteriorated significantly.
What is the world economic prediction for 2023? ›Global trade remains under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, weakening global demand and tighter monetary and fiscal policies. The volume of global trade in goods and services is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2023, well below the pre-pandemic trend.
Who has the strongest economy in the world 2023? ›The United States of America, China, Japan, Germany, and India are the largest economies in the world in 2023, as per their GDP data. GDP serves as a key metric for assessing the magnitude of a nation's economy.
Why are people leaving Laos? ›Many of the Hmong were recruited by the CIA to serve as spies against the communists. As a result, when the communists seized control, many of the Hmong were forced to flee the country for their anti-communist involvement.
Why not to go to Laos? ›Exercise increased caution to Laos due to civil unrest. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory.
Is Laos financially stable? ›Laos' economy is forecast to grow by 3.8 percent in 2022, up from an estimated 2.5 percent in 2021, provided that ongoing debt renegotiations are successful and that strict COVID-19 containment measures do not return.
How much is $100 US in Laos? ›Can US citizens live in Laos? ›
Yes, US citizens require a Laos Visa.
How many US citizens live in Laos? ›It has been estimated that there are several thousand Americans living in Laos. Living in Laos is an incredible experience for a number of reasons, including the friendly locals, the quality of life, the natural environment, and the culture and cuisine.
Is Laos a good place to live? ›The country's natural landscapes, including its mountains, rivers, and forests, provide ample opportunities for outdoor activities and adventure, and expats living in Laos will find that the cost of living is relatively low.
What is the average income in Laos? ›Due to its political and financial situation, Laos is considered one of the least developed countries in the world. With an average annual income of 2,500 USD it is one of the lower middle-income countries.
Which country has been bombed the most? ›History of The American Secret War in Laos
From 1964 to 1973, the U.S. dropped more than 2.5M tons of ordnance on Laos during 580,000 bombing sorties—equal to a planeload of bombs every eight minutes, 24 hours a day, for nine years – making Laos the most heavily bombed country per capita in history.
Outlook Across Key Economic Metrics. The speed and the extent to which inflation returns to pre-2021 levels depend on a number of key factors. In all scenarios, we expect to see a material softening of inflation in 2023, returning to target inflation levels of 2% by 2024 in the case of a 'soft landing.
Will US economy grow in 2023? ›The forecasters see the U.S. economy in 2023 expanding at the same pace as they predicted three months ago, according to 38 panelists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Will a recession happen in 2023? ›Although it's possible, things would have to deteriorate very quickly in the economy, and the jobs market specifically, for a downturn to start this year. “We're running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN.
What country has the most debt? ›Norway is the country with the highest level of household debt based on OECD data followed by Denmark and the Netherlands.
Who will be the richest country in 2023? ›1. Ireland [ GDP-PPP: 145,196 dollars, Population: around 49 Lakh 61 thousand] Foremost richest country in this significant list of wealthiest countries 2023 is Ireland. This small country became the most prosperous country in the world in 2023.
Which country will have the best economy in the future? ›
Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average. As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
Is it safe for Americans to travel to Laos? ›Many parts of Laos have unexploded bombs. High-risk areas include Xieng Khouang province and the Lao-Vietnamese border areas along the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Always stay on established walking paths and roads. Don't touch unknown metal objects.
How many Americans died in Laos? ›Laos Bombing Casualties and Legacy
Declassified documents show that 728 Americans died in Laos, most of whom were working for the CIA. The secret war in Laos, or the Laos Civil War to many who lived through it, set a precedent for a more militarized CIA with the power to engage in covert conflicts around the world.
VIENTIANE (Vientiane Times/Asia News Network): Laos has climbed to 89th place out of 137 countries and territories in the global happiness ranking, up by six places from last year's report when 146 countries were included.
Is Thailand safe for American tourists? ›In general, Thailand is a safe country for travelers
There is a history of social unrest and violent conflicts in parts of the country, but crimes in tourist areas are rare. As long as you exercise standard travel safety precautions (like staying alert, keeping an eye on your belongings, etc.)
Cambodia, in particular, sometimes has a stressful atmosphere because of all the people and noise around you. Laos is just laidback and easy-going, but I wouldn't also suggest roaming at night carefree. In both countries, you should be aware of food safety and be careful with what you consume.
How much money do you need to live in Laos? ›The average cost of living in Laos is $985, which is about 1.34 times more expensive than the world's average. A Single person would most likely spend an estimated monthly cost of about K28 492 388.
Why is Laos so expensive? ›There's a reason Laos is slightly more expensive when compared to the rest of Southeast Asia. What is this? Few things here are locally produced and, because the country is landlocked, it has to import almost everything. That raises prices for goods, services, and transportation.
Is Laos a good place to invest? ›Don't let the growing frontier economy of Laos fool you. This Southeast Asian country is among the region's most restrictive to foreign investment. You should exercise caution when buying property, investing in stocks, or starting a business in Laos.
Is Laos a good country to invest in? ›In 2022, the government approved the 9th Five-Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2021-2025), which aims at graduating Laos from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026 to become an upper-middle income country. Laos ranks 147th out of 176 in the 2023 Index of Economic Freedom.
Can you pay with USD in Laos? ›
Although Laos's official currency is the Kip, the US Dollar is widely accepted in many transactions, so we recommend taking some US Dollars in cash. In Vientiane and Luang Prabang you can exchange hard currency - including British Pounds - relatively easily at licensed exchange shops, or in the banks.
How much is a lira to a US dollar? ›1 TRY = 0.038386 USD Jul 02, 2023 02:58 UTC.
How much is $100000 US in Thailand? ›How much is 100000 US Dollar in Thai Baht? 100000 US Dollar is 3486315 Thai Baht.
How long can a U.S. citizen stay in Laos? ›Tourist visas are required.
Tourist visas on arrival are available at certain ports of entry, and generally permit a stay of 30 days. You can extend the visa up to an additional 60 days through the Department of Immigration in Vientiane. At certain ports of entry, you can use an eVisa.
To drive in Laos, expats will need an International Driving Permit (IDP). Although expats from China, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia can drive in Laos with their home country's licence, car rental agencies often require an IDP from all expats.
How long can a U.S. citizen live in Thailand? ›Non-immigrant visas are usually issued for a maximum of 90 days. Therefore, if you want to stay longer, you have to get a one-year visa extension from the Bureau of Immigration in Bangkok. Moreover, you should also get a Re-Entry Permit, which can be issued for single or multiple entries.
Where do most Lao people live in the US? ›Many of the Laotians settled in central California to work in the farmland there. Additional Laotian communities exist in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area and in the Inland Empire region (i.e. Banning). In the Northeast, there are Laotian communities spread across the New England states.
Do I need malaria pills for Laos? ›CDC recommends that travelers going to certain areas of Laos take prescription medicine to prevent malaria. Depending on the medicine you take, you will need to start taking this medicine multiple days before your trip, as well as during and after your trip.
What vaccinations do I need to go to Laos? ›Courses or boosters usually advised: Diphtheria; Hepatitis A; Tetanus. Other vaccines to consider: Hepatitis B; Rabies; Typhoid. Selectively advised vaccines - only for those individuals at highest risk: Cholera; Japanese Encephalitis. No yellow fever vaccination certificate required for this country.
How much do I need to retire in Laos? ›One undeniably appealing thing about life here is how very affordable it can be. The average two-bedroom house in Vientiane, either Western- or Laos-style, rents for $400 to $500 monthly. Arrange a more modest rental for $400 per month, and your total monthly budget could be as little as $1,000.
What are the cons of living in Laos? ›
The cons of living in Laos include the lack of infrastructure and modern amenities, the limited job opportunities, and the language barrier. Additionally, the healthcare system is not as advanced as in other countries, and the internet connection can be unreliable.
Are people friendly in Laos? ›Laotians are renowned for being among the warmest and most friendly peoples in all of Asia. Generous souls who are quick to laugh and eager to have fun. At the drop of a hat, and on virtually any occasion, Laotians will happily party on the streets, invite other locals and passersbys to join in the and be merry.
Is $100 a lot in Laos? ›Laos is one of Southeast Asia's less prosperous countries – but the upside is, your $100 goes a long, long way here. Your C-note converts into 850,000 Lao Kip (LAK) – which is a lot by local standards.
How much does an apartment cost in Laos? ›Cost of Accommodation in Laos
It costs around $470 USD per month to rent a 1 bedroom apartment in Vientiane city centre. Outside of Luang Prabang in the cheapest and most basic hotels expect to pay around $5 a night for a fan room and $7 to $10 for a room with air-conditioning.
The average monthly income in Laos is 208 US Dollar per capita. In the USA, the figure is 5,911 US Dollar.
How many Americans died in Vietnam? ›The Vietnam Conflict Extract Data File of the Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) Extract Files contains records of 58,220 U.S. military fatal casualties of the Vietnam War.
Why did the US bomb Cambodia? ›The bombing of Cambodia was part of Nixon's "madman theory" that was meant to intimidate North Vietnam by showing that he was a dangerous leader capable of anything.
What was the secret CIA base in Laos? ›From 1960 to 1975 The CIA ran a clandestine sideshow to the Vietnam war in Laos. Long Cheng was a secret air base built by the CIA during the Vietnam war. This base was so secretive that not even Congress was aware of its existence. Long Cheng was unmarked, un-mapped and known only by a select few.
What will be the economic impact in 2023? ›Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent.
What is Laos GDP per capita 2023? ›What is the population of Laos in 2023? ›
Laos's population in 2023
Laos's total population was 7.58 million in January 2023. Data shows that Laos's population increased by 105 thousand (+1.4 percent) between 2022 and 2023. 49.6 percent of Laos's population is female, while 50.4 percent of the population is male.
Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won't be the year when a downturn will begin. “For this year, given these jobs numbers, it's hard to see a recession. Increasingly, the odds of a recession this year are fading,” Zandi said.
Will US economy recover in 2023? ›Outlook Across Key Economic Metrics. The speed and the extent to which inflation returns to pre-2021 levels depend on a number of key factors. In all scenarios, we expect to see a material softening of inflation in 2023, returning to target inflation levels of 2% by 2024 in the case of a 'soft landing.
Will recession end in 2023? ›Almost two-thirds of chief economists believe a global recession is likely in 2023; of which 18% consider it extremely likely – more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022. A third of respondents consider a global recession to be unlikely this year.
What is the average income in Laos in dollars? ›Due to its political and financial situation, Laos is considered one of the least developed countries in the world. With an average annual income of 2,500 USD it is one of the lower middle-income countries.
What is the poorest country in the world 2023? ›| # | Country | Poverty Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burundi | 64.9% |
| 2 | Somalia | |
| 3 | Mozambique | 46.1% |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 62% |
There is an active expat community in Laos, with many retirees from all over the world living in the country. There are plenty of cultural attractions to explore, such as the ancient temples and monuments, as well as the vibrant markets and street food.
Is it expensive to live in Laos? ›The 2023 Mercer Cost of Living survey puts Vientiane at the 209th most expensive city out of 227. Regionally, the cost of living for expats in Laos is similar to or slightly less than in Thailand and more costly than in Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, though this depends largely on lifestyle.
How many Lao people live in USA? ›There are about over 200,000 ethnic Lao in America. Approximately 8,000 to 11,000 Americans are of mixed Lao and other descent. Ethnic Lao people may identify as both Lao American and Laotian American (see also Hmong American).
Can I live in Laos? ›The cost of living in Laos is surprisingly high and is similar to neighbouring Thailand. Though food and transport costs are generally low, expats may find themselves paying more than expected for higher-end accommodation in urban centres, Western food and international education.